Monmouthshire (Sir Fynwy in Welsh) is a predominantly rural county in south-east Wales, home to 93,000 residents. Despite its picturesque landscapes and vibrant communities, the county faces significant socio-economic and demographic challenges. An ageing population and a constrained, expensive housing market make it difficult for younger residents to settle, prompting Monmouthshire County Council (MCC) to seek innovative solutions through strategic predictions and projects.
Transition Focus: Socio-Economic and Demographic Shifts
Monmouthshire is undergoing profound transitions, especially in mobility, demographics, and transport. The county’s average age is 48, and by 2036, it’s projected that 36% of the population will be over 65. This demographic shift has serious implications for economic growth, community sustainability, and public health. A focus group identified the lack of higher education, employment, and affordable housing as key factors driving young people away.
Addressing the Housing Crisis
Monmouthshire’s ageing population poses economic and social sustainability challenges. Predictions indicate that 70% of new households will be priced out of the housing market, the most expensive in Wales. Vibrant towns like Abergavenny are essential to the county’s future, but they face economic pressures such as rising energy costs and declining household spending. MCC, in collaboration with local councils, aims to reimagine these towns, potentially repurposing town center spaces for residential use to meet affordable housing needs.
Living Lab Challenge
The Monmouthshire Living Lab experiment aims to understand and address the drivers of demographic change. By exploring why younger people stay, leave, arrive, or return, the experiment will also examine related issues such as transport, housing, income inequality, and the skills needed for environmental and digital transitions.
Rationale
Youth out-migration is a significant challenge to sustainable communities. MCC’s Well-being Plan (2018) highlights that 42% of outward migration is by 15-29 year-olds, typically driven by educational and economic factors. MCC seeks to balance the needs of an ageing population while making the county viable for younger residents. Understanding the reasons behind demographic shifts will help MCC develop targeted interventions.
Policy Relevance
MCC’s key strategies, the Replacement Local Development Plan (2023) and the Community and Corporate Plan (expected 2024), focus on attracting and retaining younger people. The Living Lab’s findings will inform these plans, contributing to socially and economically sustainable communities. MCC’s involvement in various partnerships and adherence to the Well-being of Future Generations Act further underscore the importance of this initiative.
Research Questions
- What barriers do young people (16-25) perceive to living and working in Monmouthshire?
- For younger working-aged people (25-45), what makes Monmouthshire an (un)attractive place to live and work?
- How can MCC increase the attractiveness and viability of the county for younger working-aged people?
Emerging Data Needs
MCC needs more granular and qualitative data to understand the reasons behind demographic shifts. The data experiment will explore these reasons in detail, focusing on younger people’s views and experiences. This approach will help MCC develop informed policies and interventions to address the county’s demographic challenges.
Monmouthshire’s Living Lab initiative aims to tackle the county’s demographic challenges by understanding the drivers behind demographic changes. By engaging with younger residents and gathering qualitative data, MCC hopes to develop targeted interventions to retain and attract younger working-age people. This initiative is crucial for ensuring a sustainable and resilient future for Monmouthshire.