Addressing Youth Outward-Migration and an Ageing Population in Monmouthshire

In Monmouthshire, the RUSTIK project is collecting data to help Monmouthshire County Council understand issues contributing to the region’s demographic challenge of youth outward-migration and an ageing population. Improving demographic balance is a key strategic objective for the Council and is central to ensuring Monmouthshire’s communities are economically and socially sustainable.

Data collection is being carried out using the Maptionnaire survey tool, alongside community focus groups with young people and younger-working age people who live, work or study within Monmouthshire. The survey and focus groups are aimed at people aged 16-44, and explore people’s views about life and quality of life in Monmouthshire; including availability of suitable housing, employment or education/training opportunities, as well as access to services, transport and leisure.

Original data from the survey and focus groups will be combined with existing local and regional statistics to produce an experimental place-based data viewer, allowing comparison between hyper-local areas within the county. This will provide place-based insights, and quick accessibility of locally relevant quantitative and qualitative data by both the Council and aligned organisations such as housing providers and third sector organisations to inform local decision-making and interventions.

Another version of the survey is aimed at people who do not currently live in Monmouthshire but have a connection with the county. Perhaps they work or study there but live elsewhere, have lived there in the past but moved away, have family there, or may like to live there in the future. The survey seeks to understand what the barriers or the enabling factors are to these groups living in Monmouthshire or making it their future home.

To encourage a high response rate, the RUSTIK team are visiting community spaces across Monmouthshire to speak to residents and visitors about the research, as well as promoting the survey though online channels, and via the newsletters of local community and third sector organisations.

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Monmouthshire’s Approach to Demographic Challenges

Monmouthshire (Sir Fynwy in Welsh) is a predominantly rural county in south-east Wales, home to 93,000 residents. Despite its picturesque landscapes and vibrant communities, the county faces significant socio-economic and demographic challenges. An ageing population and a constrained, expensive housing market make it difficult for younger residents to settle, prompting Monmouthshire County Council (MCC) to seek innovative solutions through strategic predictions and projects.

Transition Focus: Socio-Economic and Demographic Shifts

Monmouthshire is undergoing profound transitions, especially in mobility, demographics, and transport. The county’s average age is 48, and by 2036, it’s projected that 36% of the population will be over 65. This demographic shift has serious implications for economic growth, community sustainability, and public health. A focus group identified the lack of higher education, employment, and affordable housing as key factors driving young people away.

Addressing the Housing Crisis

Monmouthshire’s ageing population poses economic and social sustainability challenges. Predictions indicate that 70% of new households will be priced out of the housing market, the most expensive in Wales. Vibrant towns like Abergavenny are essential to the county’s future, but they face economic pressures such as rising energy costs and declining household spending. MCC, in collaboration with local councils, aims to reimagine these towns, potentially repurposing town center spaces for residential use to meet affordable housing needs.

Living Lab Challenge

The Monmouthshire Living Lab experiment aims to understand and address the drivers of demographic change. By exploring why younger people stay, leave, arrive, or return, the experiment will also examine related issues such as transport, housing, income inequality, and the skills needed for environmental and digital transitions.

Rationale

Youth out-migration is a significant challenge to sustainable communities. MCC’s Well-being Plan (2018) highlights that 42% of outward migration is by 15-29 year-olds, typically driven by educational and economic factors. MCC seeks to balance the needs of an ageing population while making the county viable for younger residents. Understanding the reasons behind demographic shifts will help MCC develop targeted interventions.

Policy Relevance

MCC’s key strategies, the Replacement Local Development Plan (2023) and the Community and Corporate Plan (expected 2024), focus on attracting and retaining younger people. The Living Lab’s findings will inform these plans, contributing to socially and economically sustainable communities. MCC’s involvement in various partnerships and adherence to the Well-being of Future Generations Act further underscore the importance of this initiative.

Research Questions

  • What barriers do young people (16-25) perceive to living and working in Monmouthshire?
  • For younger working-aged people (25-45), what makes Monmouthshire an (un)attractive place to live and work?
  • How can MCC increase the attractiveness and viability of the county for younger working-aged people?

Emerging Data Needs

MCC needs more granular and qualitative data to understand the reasons behind demographic shifts. The data experiment will explore these reasons in detail, focusing on younger people’s views and experiences. This approach will help MCC develop informed policies and interventions to address the county’s demographic challenges.

Monmouthshire’s Living Lab initiative aims to tackle the county’s demographic challenges by understanding the drivers behind demographic changes. By engaging with younger residents and gathering qualitative data, MCC hopes to develop targeted interventions to retain and attract younger working-age people. This initiative is crucial for ensuring a sustainable and resilient future for Monmouthshire.